The Maltese Islands have experienced an unusually warm and dry October, as highlighted by the Maltese Islands Weather Facebook page. With just one week left in the month, temperatures have averaged 22.8°C, which is 1.3°C higher than normal for this time of year.

Rainfall has been scarce, with only two instances of rain so far, and even those were localised heavy showers, with most storms skimming past the islands. The national average for rainfall this month stands at just 10.8 mm, a far cry from the typical October average of 82.9 mm, making October the third wettest month of the year in a typical climate.

Is this unusual? Looking back over the past 14 years, October weather has varied significantly. Six Octobers have seen less rain than average, five have been average or slightly above, and only three have had significantly more rainfall.

This disparity often comes down to whether storm systems hit the Maltese Islands directly, which is influenced by a complex combination of atmospheric conditions. Given the archipelago’s small size—just 45 km in length and 12 km in width—predicting where storms will hit is difficult. Some years see just one or two storm systems, while others experience up to ten.

Rainfall in Malta is notoriously unreliable, fluctuating greatly from year to year and even between localities. The current trend is concerning, with a noticeable decrease in the frequency of storm systems, reducing the likelihood of significant rainfall.

Looking ahead, there is no indication that this dry spell will break before November, leaving the Maltese Islands without much-needed rain as the month comes to an end.

Are you praying for winter weather in November?